Summary:

• With the withdrawal of over 10,000 Atmis troops by December, Al-Shabaab has strengthened and poses an unprecedented threat to East Africa. The extremist group has expanded its reach and capabilities, forming alliances and enhancing its tactics, necessitating a new force to replace Atmis and address the growing security concerns.

The African Union (AU) is set to replace its peacekeeping mission in Somalia, Atmis, with a new force amid growing concerns over the strengthened presence of Al-Shabaab extremists. The withdrawal of over 10,000 Atmis troops by December has led to fears that Al-Shabaab poses an unprecedented threat to East Africa.

For over a decade, troops from Kenya, Uganda, Burundi, Djibouti, and Ethiopia have battled Al-Shabaab, initially under the AU Mission in Somalia (Amisom) and later as Atmis. The extremist group, which aims to overthrow Somalia’s government, has carried out numerous deadly attacks in the region, including a high-profile siege on Nairobi’s Westgate Mall in 2013.

Recent reports and assessments indicate that Al-Shabaab has expanded its reach and capabilities, establishing a formidable presence across East Africa. It has formed alliances with groups like the Uganda-based Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) and has developed advanced tactics, including drone use and sophisticated IED deployment.

The AU’s confidential assessment reveals that Al-Shabaab’s influence is widespread, with significant operations in Somalia’s Jubaland region. The group’s African foreign fighters, primarily from Kenya, Ethiopia, and Tanzania, have created a potent pan-East African force, raising alarm about the region’s security and stability.

As Atmis troops continue to withdraw, the urgency for a robust new force to counter Al-Shabaab’s growing threat has never been greater.