Hezbollah tells Iran it would fight alone in any war with Israel

Summary:

• In February, amid escalating tensions between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, Iran’s Quds Force leader discussed potential threats to Hezbollah in Lebanon with seven sources. Hezbollah leader Nasrallah assured Iran of independent defense, as skirmishes in Lebanon intensified.

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In February, amid the assault on ally Hamas in Gaza, the leader of Iran’s Quds Force visited Beirut to discuss the potential threat if Israel were to target Hezbollah in Lebanon, a move that could significantly undermine Tehran’s key regional partner, according to seven sources.

The discussion centered on the prospect of a comprehensive Israeli offensive in Lebanon, which could not only harm the Shiite Islamist group but also compel Iran to respond more assertively than it has thus far since October 7, according to three sources familiar with Iran’s inner circle of power.

Over the past five months, Hezbollah, a staunch foe of Israel, has expressed solidarity with Hamas by launching limited rocket attacks across Israel’s northern border.

At the undisclosed meeting, Hezbollah’s Nasrallah assured Qaani that Iran need not become embroiled in a conflict with Israel or the United States, affirming that Hezbollah was prepared to defend itself independently, as recounted by all sources.

“This is our struggle,” Nasrallah conveyed to Qaani, as reported by one Iranian source with insight into the discussions.

Despite efforts to contain escalation, skirmishes in Lebanon have displaced tens of thousands on both sides of the border. Israeli airstrikes have claimed the lives of over 200 Hezbollah militants and more than 50 civilians in Lebanon, while Lebanese attacks into Israel have resulted in the deaths of a dozen Israeli soldiers and six civilians.

Recent Israeli counter-strikes have intensified, raising concerns that the violence could spiral out of control, even amid negotiations for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant hinted in February at plans to escalate attacks to decisively remove Hezbollah fighters from the border following a Gaza ceasefire.

The Beirut meeting underscores the strain on Iran’s strategy of avoiding significant escalation in the region while demonstrating support for Gaza across the Middle East via allied armed groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, analysts noted.

A conflict in Lebanon that severely weakens Hezbollah would constitute a major setback for Iran, which has relied on the group, founded with its support in 1982, as a deterrent against Israel and to safeguard its interests in the broader region, according to two regional sources.