Summary:

• Mogadishu has announced the complete withdrawal of African Union troops (ATMIS) from Somalia by the end of 2023, with the second phase drawdown of 3,000 troops concluding as scheduled, despite concerns about potential security lapses in the fight against terrorism.

Mogadishu has announced that the African Union troops (ATMIS) currently stationed in Somalia will complete their withdrawal by the end of 2023. Somalia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations, Abukar Dahir Osman, conveyed to the Security Council that the second phase drawdown of 3,000 ATMIS troops will meet its scheduled conclusion on December 31st. Originally, troops from Uganda, Kenya, Ethiopia, Djibouti, and Burundi were set to leave Somalia on September 29, 2023, but Mogadishu requested a three-month delay, citing potential security challenges in the fight against terrorism.

The Joint Tripartite Committee of ATMIS completed the withdrawal of 2,000 troops in June and initiated activities for the Phase 2 drawdown. Ambassador Osman emphasized the Federal Government’s commitment to fully transitioning security responsibility from ATMIS to the Somali National Army within the agreed timelines, viewing it as a significant opportunity for the country to enhance its capacity to address security challenges.

Osman highlighted the government’s progress in State-building and security restoration through military operations against Al-Shabaab. The Somali government reported the liberation of over 600 kilometers of territory from Al-Shabaab since August 2022.

Despite these advancements, setbacks have occurred. The Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM), Catriona Laing, noted operational challenges and setbacks faced by the Somali National Army, with Al-Shabaab intensifying its attacks in Mogadishu. The conflicts have resulted in a rising civilian toll, recording 1,289 casualties in 2023.

Reflecting on historical context, Osman recalled the situation in south-central Somalia before AMISOM’s deployment in 2007, where various entities and warlords claimed different parts of the country. AMISOM, led by Ugandan forces, successfully reclaimed territory from Al-Shabaab, expanding the space for the government to exert authority.

In a significant development, the UN Security Council lifted the arms embargo on the Federal Government of Somalia, enabling it to confront security threats, particularly those posed by Al-Shabaab. Osman emphasized that sustainable peace and security require a comprehensive approach, integrating security measures with initiatives for long-term stability and prosperity.

Experts caution that the drawdown of ATMIS troops should be guided by a careful assessment of the security situation and the capabilities of Somali security forces. Mohamed Souef, an African Union official, stressed the need for dedicated support to the government’s reconciliation and stabilization efforts, including promoting social cohesion and extending state authority to newly liberated areas.