Summary:

• Uganda warns of rising Lake Victoria water levels, raising flood risks for South Sudan and Sudan. Conflict in Sudan complicates response efforts. Ethiopia faces earthquake risk near dams, including GERD, sparking concerns for downstream Sudan and Egypt.

KAMPALA, (Examiner) – Uganda has issued a stark warning regarding the swelling water levels of Lake Victoria. According to Sam Cheptoris, the Ugandan Minister of Water and Environment, the lake has reached its highest level yet, a concerning development with potential repercussions for neighboring South Sudan and Sudan, particularly along the White Nile where ongoing conflict has weakened essential services.

The surge in Lake Victoria’s water level, now at 13.66 meters compared to 13.5 meters in 2020, can be attributed to the current El Niño rains feeding 23 regional rivers into the lake. Minister Cheptoris emphasized the imminent threat of flooding to communities residing along lake shores and riverbanks, as reported by the Chinese Xinhua news agency.

In response, Uganda has been compelled to release additional water into the White Nile, heightening the risk of flooding downstream in South Sudan and Sudan. This risk is compounded by the long-standing conflict, which has disrupted vital state services including the monitoring of Nile water levels.

The situation is particularly precarious at the Jebel Aulia dam south of Khartoum, the country’s sole reservoir inaccessible to engineers due to its occupation by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since November. Efforts by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) to regain control have been unsuccessful, raising concerns about the management of the reservoir, especially during the upcoming rainy season.

In February, protective measures were completed in El Kawa by the Ministry of Infrastructure and Urban Development of White Nile state in response to rising water levels affecting residential areas.

The broader implications of these environmental shifts were underscored by AFP prior to the COP27 climate summit in 2022, highlighting the threat posed to Sudan’s food and energy security, ecosystems, and livelihoods by droughts, rising temperatures, and shifts in the Earth’s axis.

Meanwhile, Ethiopia faced its own environmental challenge as an earthquake struck near the Gilgel Gibe III dam on the Omo River, raising concerns about the vulnerability of dams in seismic zones. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) at the source of the Blue Nile has been a point of contention among Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt. A major earthquake could potentially jeopardize Sudan’s infrastructure and inundate vast areas along the Blue Nile and Nile River, amplifying risks for millions of Sudanese.

While some experts downplay these risks as exaggerated, the potential consequences remain a significant concern for regional stability and development.