Political scholars and analysts in Kagadi district have urged potential candidates and current parliamentarians to tread carefully in the current political climate dominated by the National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the PLU (Patriotic Leadership Union). They advise against aligning with one faction while disregarding the other, as it could lead to disappointment.

Dr. Mwalimu Musheshe emphasizes that until President Museveni announces his intentions for the 2025 elections, candidates should minimize their public statements and carefully navigate the political landscape.

Kagadi district, established in 2016 from the larger Kibaale district, has consistently supported the NRM, from local council elections to parliamentary seats, even when Buyaga constituency was part of the larger Kibaale. Despite the emergence of opposition parties such as the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Democratic Party (DP), and National Unity Platform (NUP), none have managed to secure a council seat in Kagadi.

However, the PLU, chaired by General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the Chief of Defence Forces, is gaining traction, especially among the youth. Several candidates have announced their intention to run under the NRM-PLU banner if the group does not become an official political party.

Musheshe advises caution, suggesting that individuals should remain affiliated with both PLU and NRM to avoid potential pitfalls. “With the current uncertainties, especially regarding President Museveni’s plans and the implications of Muhoozi’s appointment, it’s safer to maintain connections with both PLU and NRM. Choosing one side could lead to unforeseen disappointments,” Musheshe explained.

Musheshe also highlights that Museveni’s silence on his political future is contributing to the confusion. He believes that the answers will become clearer in 2025 when Museveni makes his intentions known. “The appointment of Muhoozi and the presence of PLU are significant. It’s crucial to stay aligned with both factions as they are not directly competing with each other,” he added.

The rise of the PLU has complicated matters for the NUP, which struggles to gain traction in Bunyoro, a region where the youth largely support the PLU. Musheshe notes that Museveni’s challenges are not necessarily from the opposition but from military-related issues and demands from the youth for a power transition.

James Byarugaba, Kagadi’s PLU coordinator, assures that Muhoozi will not oppose his father. Instead, Muhoozi’s positioning aims for a smooth transition to prevent political instability. “We are NRM but support Muhoozi’s ideology. We trust he is the right candidate to address corruption and improve service delivery. We want to be prepared for any eventuality,” Byarugaba said.

On the other hand, Barnabas Tinkasimire, Buyaga West MP, has criticized Museveni’s plans to potentially position his son as his successor. “While we have supported Museveni for years, bringing his son into the presidency is unacceptable. Uganda is not a monarchy, and we are prepared to challenge any attempts to install his son,” Tinkasimire warned.