Summary:

• In northeastern Uganda’s Karamoja region, a four-year outbreak of violent livestock raids is declining due to a military campaign fueled by informer intelligence. However, deep-seated tensions within communities and changing economic incentives complicate future peace efforts.

In northeastern Uganda’s Karamoja region, a four-year tumult of violent livestock raids is finally ebbing, thanks to a relentless campaign by the military fueled by informer intelligence. However, the return of stability doesn’t guarantee smooth sailing ahead. Deep-seated tensions rooted in class disparities, generational clashes, and rifts between raiders and government collaborators within communities could complicate future reconciliation efforts.

My extensive fieldwork in Kotido District from 2022 to 2023 among the Jie ethnic group, totaling around 240,000 individuals, highlighted the necessity of going beyond conventional conflict resolution models. To truly address the intricate web of fears, enmities, alliances, and betrayals stemming from the recent violence, peace advocates must navigate this complex terrain.

Livestock raiding has long been ingrained in Karamoja’s fabric, historically driven by inter-ethnic rivalries over land and animals, sustaining an agro-pastoral economy reliant on resilience in the region’s harsh conditions. Previous military disarmament campaigns in the 2000s resorted to sweeping measures, fostering sympathy for rustlers and deepening animosity towards the state, dating back to colonial rule.

Recent tactics have shifted towards intelligence-led operations, targeting individuals based on informer tips. This approach, while effective in curbing raids, has sown internal discord, as reflected in a chilling anthem among Jie youth in 2022.

The dynamics of raiding have evolved alongside Karamoja’s changing political economy. The influx of cash and commercialization has transformed raiding into a lucrative venture, exacerbating economic disparities and reshaping conflict dynamics. Amidst the peace of the 2010s, younger men, marginalized from economic opportunities, turned to illicit means for survival.

The resurgence of raiding in 2019 and 2020, exacerbated by the pandemic’s impact, saw a shift towards market-driven criminal enterprises, undermining community cohesion and exacerbating food insecurity.

In this new landscape, raiders no longer adhere to traditional norms of communal sharing, operating for personal gain and even collaborating across ethnic lines. Informers, cultivated by military intelligence, introduce a pervasive atmosphere of suspicion, blurring the lines between loyalty and betrayal.

Peacebuilding efforts must adapt to these changing realities. While traditional inter-ethnic reconciliation meetings have their place, they overlook the intricate economic factors and intra-communal divisions that fuel conflict. It’s crucial for peacebuilders to recognize and address these shifts in Karamoja’s political economy, acknowledging the blurred roles of raiders, peacemakers, and informers in shaping the region’s future.